Some comparison

Some comparison

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Is banking crisis very near in India?

Is banking crisis very near in India?

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

WE HOPE BREAK-OUT ABOVE 6268

BREAK-DOWN BELOW 6028

BEFORE THIS WEEK END.

BEFORE THAT BREAK-UP/BREAK-DOWN

PLAY WITH MID-CAP STOCKS

WHICH ARE NOT PARTICIPATED IN THE RALLY.

BETWEEN 6044 TO 6244 BULLS CAN BUY IN DIPS AND EXIT

WITH MINIMUM PROFITS. BEARS CAN SHORT AT RALLY AND

EXIT WITH MINIMUM POINTS.

FOR TOMORROW

POSITIVE ABOVE 6177 AND NEGATIVE BELOW 6155.

EXPECTED RANGE

IN SPOT 6111-6222

Nifty SAR 6050

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

NIFTY MAYBE HIGH & LOW FOR 6-10-10

6233-6161

MACD positive divergence would be at 6193-6222

Nifty closing below 6143 would render Immediate trend negative.

critical reversal point would be 6020

nifty should close at/above 6280 TO CONTINUE BULL PHASE

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

NIFTY TOMORROW MAYBE HIGH & LOW IS

6227 & 6147

Call Option 6200-6500 added (27.5 lacs) OI with unwinding seen at 6100 and lower strike price. Put Options 5800-6200 added (26.7 lacs) huge OI with some addition also seen at 5700 strike price

Current Spot: 6159.45

Pivot: 6175

5DEMA: 6090

10DEMA: 6027

20DEMA: 5910

50DEMA: 5697

RSI (7 days): 82.71

Parabolic SAR: 5969

Supports: 6129 - 6098

Resistance: 6206 - 6253

NIFTY SAR IS 6020

EURO AND US DOLLAR WEEKENING AGAINST ALL ASIAN CURENCIES.

AS LONG AS THIS TREND CONTINUES FII'S WILL

BUY ASIAN STOCKS AND HEDGE THEIR DOLLAR. SO BEARS HAVE

TO WATCH RUPEE MOVEMENT BEFORE MAKING SHORTS.

WE HOPE THIS CONSOLIDATION

BETWEEN 6044 AND 6244 WILL CONTINUE UP TO WEDNESDAY

AND THEN NIFTY MAY MAKE ANOTHER CLEAR MOVE

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

A major support has formed at 5930 levels.

Friday bar was one of the biggest in last 2 weeks so the Friday low (6030) is critical.

Because of this, consider trend as up as long as 6030 holds.

with support @ 5930

The next technical resistance for nifty future seems close to the level of 6205 and 6245 levels. Decisive closing above this resistance zone may take up nifty future to the levels of 6292-6336 in near future

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

NIFTY MAYBE HIGH 6222

MAYBE LOW 6088 ON MONDAY

EXPECTED RANGE 6088-6222

RESISTANCE FOR 04/10/2010..... 6199/6222

SUPPORTS FOR 04/10/2010..... 6133/6088

BUY NIFTY ABV 6160 SL 6140 TARGET 6250

BUY NIFTY 6300CA TGT 200

6400 CA TGT 130

6500CA TGT 100

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hi to alllllllllllll

from tomorrow blog willbe updated regularly sorry for inconvience

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty Might touch 5500 Before Or On Expiry

Nifty One may expect that the up trend would be continuing in the market & we might see the 5500 mark soon.

For trading we recommend buy on dips until it close below 5350 for the targets of 5500, 5550.

Next Trading Possible High & Low Maybe

5464 & 5388

Below 5410 Nifty can retest 5390

Abv 5434 nifty can test 5454 & 5464

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Today Nifty broken and closed below 5430

This level has been offering support since 3rd AUG.

This level will be crucial for next few days.

Since market is near RSI supports on daily and hourly charts, a bounce is not ruled out.

A gap up or down opening 30 min low holding would be a bullish sign.

On the other hand, inability to cross 5430 would be a bearish sign intraday and

could lead to a retest of 5350 in next 1-2 days.

As an intraday strategy, use the first hour candlestick breakout to initiate trades.

Current Spot: 5420.60
Pivot: 5436
5DEMA: 5445
10DEMA: 5438
20DEMA: 5413
50DEMA: 5329
RSI (7 days): 46.71
Parabolic SAR: 5378
Supports: 5397 - 5373
Resistance: 5459 - 5498

TOMORROWS HIGH & LOW MAYBE 5444 & 5360

BELOW 5350 -5333 THIS BULL RUN WILL TERMINATE

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

TOMORROWS NIFTY LIKELY TO TOP AROUND 5512-5525

DOWNSIDE LIKELY TO 5464-5454

STRONG SUPP 5474

RESISTENCE @ 5490

BEARS WILLBE UPPER HAND IF BREAKS 5474-5454

HENCE OUR VIEW IS TO UNWIND LONG @ EVERY RISE

5DMA@5456
20DMA@5417
50DMA@5295
200DMA@5128

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

NIFTY MAY BE HIGH FOR NEXT SESSION IS 5454

MAY BE LOW 5410

STRONG RESISTANCE 5459

BREAK ABV 5480 ONLY ABV MAY LEAD NEW HIGH

NOT ABLE TO CROSS 5459 FAILURE LEADS TO 5410

BREAK DOWN WILL FALL UPTO 5383

MAIN TURNING POINTS ARE 5480-5350

BREAKDOWN OR BREAKOUT LEADS TO 100 P0INTS

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WEEKLY NIFTY VIEW

FOR LAST FIVE WEEKS NO MOVEMENT IN NIFTY. ONLY

OPTION WRITERS MAKE MONEY.

WE EXPECT A BREAK-UP OR BREAK-DOWN IN THIS WEEK.

MAY BE THIS WEEK WECAN SEE RETURN OF VOLATILE INTO THE MARKET.

NIFTY WILL MAKE SOME POSITIVE MOVEMENT IN THE FIRST TWO DAYS.

AFTER THEN IT WILL START TO CORRECT.

CORRECTIVE WAVE CAN ALSO TAKE LONG TIME.

BULLS CAN BOOK PROFIT AT 5511-33 LEVELS.

NOW THE STOP LOSS FOR BULLS IS TWO CLOSING BELOW 5377.

BEARS HAVE TO WAIT FOR ABOVE TWO CLOSINGS.

AFTER THEN SHORT IN EVERY RISE AND MAKE PROFITS.

WEEKLY TRADING RANGE

==========================

5200/5244-5488/5533

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5491

LOWER END MAYBE 5441

RESITANCE @ 5476 CROSSOVER WILL

TAKE TO 5490-5500

SUPP @ 5454 5444 BREAK WILL LEAD

TO 5410

Nifty futures range is 5422 - 5472

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

NIFTY MAY OPEN FLT TO NEGATIVE BIAS

TOMORROW ALSO MAYBE A TIGHT RANGE BOUND MKT

UPSIDE MAY BE LIMIT TO 5453

DOWN SIDE MAY BE LIMIT TO 5405

res 5454-5465

sup 5419-5410

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

It looks like some more steam left In Nifty for upside

Probably to 5480-5509-5525 may be the last

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Break out above 5400 seems a failure now which might have its own consequences.

5410 - 5420 looks as good resistance as of now which can be used as Stoploss for shorts.

5 day avg is kissing 13 day avg. Cross over of which may confirm the reversal.

We are trading in a downward channel break of which downside may accelerate the fall.

Lower high lower low pattern is intact since last 6 days.

I expect a faster fall to start by Monday.

The possibility of a gap down opening breaking the support of 5350

breaking the channel support which can accelerate the fall.

Next support is around 5210

Expect weakness if 5350 (weekly low) breaks and markets fail to recover.

Next support 5210.

Levels to watch: 5350-5210

Stoploss for longs: 5350.

For a reversal, I will look for a break of 5350 and confirmation of the same level as a resistance. This will set up a lower top with more downsides.

The 20 day swing is 5210

NIFTY As far as confirmed signals fast approaching the sell mode and is getting too close.

The critical level to watch is 5350.

NEGATIVE :-BELOW 5350,WILL FALL TO 5210,SL-5400

POSITIVE :- ABV 5454,TGT-5500,SL-5350

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty opened at 5466 with a gain of 17 points, declined steadily to 5409 and closed at 5419 with a loss of 30 points. Nifty futures range was 5417 - 5464. Today's Nifty close is below the DAILY EMA level (5441). Tomorrow's level is at 5459 and volatility due to RBI credit policy expected.

the day's trade on a negative note on sustained selling pressures across the sectoral indices. The investors turned a bit calculative ahead of the RBI'S monetary policy review scheduled tomorrow.

Nifty today opened firm but profit booking at higher levels brought the index down and it ultimately managed to close just above 5DEMA. Nifty closed below Day High EMA which is a bit bearish in nature, any close below 5DEMA and Day DEMA will reverse the trend.

RSI is in down trend from overbought level,

Stochastic is positive but over 80 level,

the volume seems to be good today.

Nifty today got resisted at the Box Range (5453-5478) at opening and closed inside the range at 5419; break of this range will decide the future course of Nifty. The trend line resistance is at 5495, breakout will take Nifty to its next trend line resistance at 5515 and above, the support trend line comes at 5405, and break of this will be bearish and take nifty to the next Box support at 5353.Trade light at higher levels and wait for any breakdown or breakup confirmation to take new position.

RANGE FOR TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE IN 5444-5386-5444

Target Nifty

Buy Nifty above 5448 - 5478 - 5496 SL - 5432

Sell Nifty below 5414 - 5406 - 5390 - 5361 SL - 5437

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

NIFTY WILL OPEN FLAT TO POSITIVE AND WILL STRUGGLE WITH 5450 AND

5480,MARK.NOT MUCH UPSIDE LEFT BUT SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT WILL

CONTINUE.THIS IS EXPIRY WEEK AND LOTS OF VOLATILITY WILL SEEN AT UPPER

LEVELS.KEEP STRICT SL AND TARGETS TO PLAY THIS WEEK.I FEEL EXPIRY WILL

TAKE AT 5333 MARK,AS WE HAVE SEEN HUGE UPSIDE FROM 4786 LEVELS.

Nifty — Fundamentally Demystified

If we look at Nifty closed at 22.75 on 23rd Jul’10. Nifty’s PER(Price/Earnings Ratio) chart from the year 1999 is reproduced below. PER exceeded 24 only on two occasions ie. in 2000 and 2008, after a gap of eight years. On both occasions heavy market crash followed and PER came down to 12

For tomorrow, one can consider going long with a stop loss of 5420. On higher side it will find resistance at 5475 - 5515 and 5545.

Short position may be taken only below 5420 with stop loss of 5450. At lower levels, it will find support at 5350.

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Today (22-7-10)Nifty opened at 5381 with a loss of 18 points, moved in the range 5372 - 5401 up to 14.00, surged there after to 5447 (+ 48 points) and closed at 5442 with a gain of 43 points. Nifty futures range was 5375 - 5459, a difference of 84 points.
Thus, today Nifty broke the pause and moved upward. As today's PE Ratio is at 22.75 there is little scope for movement above 5500

NIFTY UPPER END MAY BE 5498 LOWER END MAY BE 5404

Current Spot: 5441.95
Pivot: 5420
3DEMA: 5415
7DEMA: 5393
20DEMA: 5338
50DEMA: 5262
RSI (7 days): 71.97
Parabolic SAR: 5321
Supports: 5394 - 5345
Resistance: 5469 - 5495

Nifty today opened weak but closed firm above all Technical Averages confirms bullishness. RSI is in uptrend but in overbought level, Stochastic has also given a positive crossover and trending upwards, and the volume seems to be good today.
Nifty today bounced off the trend line support at 5372, to close firm. Break of this trend line support at 5385 will take Nifty to 5350 and below, the resistance comes at next trend line at 5485, close above will add to the momentum to take nifty higher to 5500 and above.

Target Nifty
Buy Nifty above 5458 - 5481 - 5510 - 5565 SL - 5427
Sell Nifty below 5421 - 5402 - 5348 - 5318 SL - 5432

INDIA VIX Currently heading towards all time low.. Trading below 20%..As per VIX rule risky buy at higher level..Any time correction due in next week..

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty today was positive throughout and closed above all Technical Averages

but just Below

Day HEMA

which confirms selling at higher levels.

RSI is showing an uptick moving towards overbought level,

Stochastic has also given a negative crossover and trending downwards,

and the volumes good today.

Nifty is still trading above the trend line support at 5355,

break of this trend line will take Nifty to 5320 and below,

the resistance comes at Day HEMA at 5410,

close above will add to the momentum to take nifty higher to 5450 and above.

Nifty Future made a high near 5412 twice,

but could not cross the hurdle of 5420.

All said, weakness in last one hour yesterday, was forgotten and

once again it is keeping my hopes alive that Nifty Future will cross the hurdle of 5420 and 5450 soon.

Steel sector closed firm and could take the lead tomorrow and will be supported by

Reliance if it is able to move above 1071 and 1085.

TRADE THE RANGE TILL THEN

.

Current Spot: 5399.35

Pivot: 5396

3DEMA: 5388

7DEMA: 5377

20DEMA: 5327

50DEMA: 5253

RSI (7 days): 64.37

Parabolic SAR: 5310

Supports: 5383 - 5367

Resistance: 5412 - 5425

STOCK SPECIFIC ACTIONS WITH CHOPPY

TRADING WE EXPECT FOR

NEXT TWO DAYS.

OUT PERFORMERS FOR 22/07/2010

-------------------------------

MID-CAP IT, MEDIA AND BROKING FIRMS.

UNDER PERFORMERS FOR 22/07/2010

--------------------------------

EXPORT, SHIPPING, FMCG, AND CAPITAL GOODS.

Target Nifty

Buy Nifty above 5410 - 5415 - 5430 - 5450 SL - 5395

Sell Nifty below 5388 - 5381 - 5366 - 5351 SL - 5400

MY POSSIBLE RANGE OF NIFTY EXPECTED

1) 5380 -> 5290/5200 -> 5500.

2) 5380 holds -> 5400 -> 5440 -> 5500.

...

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Some weakness seen in markets but 5350 did not break... this may happen in a day or so.

Below 5350, we have gap support at 5300 and then at 5200.

Time analysis: rally from 5200 took 7 days. Since the top at 5450, markets have been rangebound for 4-5 days. For evidence of trend reversal, we need to see faster retracement and break of 5200. We have less than a week's time for this to happen.

OUT PERFORMERS FOR 21/07/2010

-------------------------------

MID-CAP IT, MID-CAP BANKS, AND STEEL.

UNDER PERFORMERS FOR 21/07/2010

--------------------------------

EXPORT, SHIPPING, FMCG, AND CAPITAL GOODS.

LAST CLOSE@5368 (-18 POINTS)

LAST HIGH@5416 LOW@5355

20DMA@5321

50DMA@5178

200DMA@5101

EXPECTED RANGE FOR 21/07/2010.

5288-5400

For tomorrow, I would suggest buying only above 5388 with a stop loss of 5340. on higher side, it will find resistance at 5420 and 5450.

One can consider going short if Nifty future trades below 5345 with stop loss of 5375. At lower levels, it will find support at 5300 - 5270.

From last seven trading sessions nifty has taken support around 5360-5362 levels numerous times so break sown from this level could take nifty to 5280 levels.

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

We can not get more narrower than this,

nifty is simply stuck in a range waiting for a push,

but uncertainly persists as there evolving a scenario

favoring equally bull and bear,

5453 proved to be a 5th completed zone

and 5453-5363

is a 5 wave down move on the shorter time frame.

So upside breakout to negate the 5 wave down move

will occur above 5435 zone.

Intraday support lies at 5370/65,

below which it can certainly reach

5330-5310 zone deciding further move.

5260/70 is key to trend reversal.

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

US markets have closed very weak

and

our markets to open gap down

However

we would like to advise not to panic even if 5365 is broken,

as we have support around 5320 - 5340,

In case this is breached,

5303 will act as a huge buying support

In view of these multiple supports, we can expect a sharp bounce

since it is back which could act as a pleasant surprise.

Please do not go short in case Nifty Future opens with a down side gap.

On monday in case of a gap down open

one can consider going long near all supports or @ 5313 levels with stop loss of 5290.

On the way up 5365 and 5405 will act as resistance levels.

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WEEKLY NIFTY VIEW

TECHNICAL VIEW

NIFTY FORMED HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN NECKLINE COMES

NEAR 5370

HEIGHT OF 90 POINTS

BREAKING BELOW 5365 WILL LEAD TO 5305-5285

BREAKING ABOVE 5375 WILL LEAD TO 5455-5475

AND TWO CLOSING BELOW 5204 CONFIRM REVERSAL OF

TREND WITH MINIMUM TARGET OF 5055. WE EXPECT

Nifty is getting a strong support close to the levels of 5355 to 5370

for next week upper targets are 5470

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sorry

sorry due to technical error we could not update today inconvenience reggreted

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sorry

sorry due to technical error we could not update today inconvenience reggreted

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

However, markets have made a new high today and since a lower top remains elusive,

I am tempted to discard the rounding top scenario... this is going on too long now.

Ironically, discarding the rounding top will be good news for bears.

Had the rounding top persisted, symmetry would have required markets to break 4500

after 6 months at the least.

Now the only option left is a fast break of 4500.

I am keeping the bullish scenario on hold,

fully aware that markets can catch me by surprise but yet reasonably confident

that I will be on the right side.

simplest approach, though difficult to believe, is the right approach.

Negative divergence, the "Evening Star" formation for the second time alerting a reversal

And finally the sharp fall below the "Day High Ema"

Now we need to see follow up price action as well as the depth of this correction.

NIFTY GIVE UP ALL THE MORNING GAINS AND CLOSED FLAT.

HIKE IN INFLATION, HDFC POOR NUMBER AND

DOWNGRADE IN METAL, BANKING, AND IT SECTORS ALL

STRIKES THE MARKET.

BULLS CAN BREATH UPTO NIFTY HOLD 5288. BUT TWO CLOSINGS BELOW 5210

WILL CONFIRM THE REVERSAL MINIMUM TARGET OF 5066.

OUT PERFORMERS FOR 15/07/2010

-------------------------------

REALITY AND PHARMA AND MIDCAP ITS.

UNDER PERFORMERS FOR 15/07/2010

--------------------------------

BANKING AND FINANCE AND LARGE CAPS

LAST CLOSE@5386 (-14 POINTS)

LAST HIGH@5450 LOW@5371

5DMA@5364

20DMA@5305

EXPECTED RANGE 5288-5422

The index is at new 52 week highs but the breadth hasn't yet picked up

yesterday the advance decline figure was at 789 to 574

we must also appreciate that Nifty not break yesterday's low and hence is still in the process of

making higher bottom and higher top and also above the neck line

We must wait for tomorrow to decide if the market has made a false breakout and would like to

give up the gains - my feeling is it will bounce back fro the midpoint i.e. 5340.

For tomorrow, as a matter of abundant caution, one should buy Nifty Future once it is above

5405 with stop loss of 5365. On higher side it will find resistance at 5420 - 5440 and 5475

Short position may taken up below 5365 with stop loss of 5405. On lower levels, it will find

support at 5333 and 5320.

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