NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty opened at 5466 with a gain of 17 points, declined steadily to 5409 and closed at 5419 with a loss of 30 points. Nifty futures range was 5417 - 5464. Today's Nifty close is below the DAILY EMA level (5441). Tomorrow's level is at 5459 and volatility due to RBI credit policy expected.

the day's trade on a negative note on sustained selling pressures across the sectoral indices. The investors turned a bit calculative ahead of the RBI'S monetary policy review scheduled tomorrow.

Nifty today opened firm but profit booking at higher levels brought the index down and it ultimately managed to close just above 5DEMA. Nifty closed below Day High EMA which is a bit bearish in nature, any close below 5DEMA and Day DEMA will reverse the trend.

RSI is in down trend from overbought level,

Stochastic is positive but over 80 level,

the volume seems to be good today.

Nifty today got resisted at the Box Range (5453-5478) at opening and closed inside the range at 5419; break of this range will decide the future course of Nifty. The trend line resistance is at 5495, breakout will take Nifty to its next trend line resistance at 5515 and above, the support trend line comes at 5405, and break of this will be bearish and take nifty to the next Box support at 5353.Trade light at higher levels and wait for any breakdown or breakup confirmation to take new position.

RANGE FOR TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE IN 5444-5386-5444

Target Nifty

Buy Nifty above 5448 - 5478 - 5496 SL - 5432

Sell Nifty below 5414 - 5406 - 5390 - 5361 SL - 5437

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

NIFTY WILL OPEN FLAT TO POSITIVE AND WILL STRUGGLE WITH 5450 AND

5480,MARK.NOT MUCH UPSIDE LEFT BUT SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT WILL

CONTINUE.THIS IS EXPIRY WEEK AND LOTS OF VOLATILITY WILL SEEN AT UPPER

LEVELS.KEEP STRICT SL AND TARGETS TO PLAY THIS WEEK.I FEEL EXPIRY WILL

TAKE AT 5333 MARK,AS WE HAVE SEEN HUGE UPSIDE FROM 4786 LEVELS.

Nifty — Fundamentally Demystified

If we look at Nifty closed at 22.75 on 23rd Jul’10. Nifty’s PER(Price/Earnings Ratio) chart from the year 1999 is reproduced below. PER exceeded 24 only on two occasions ie. in 2000 and 2008, after a gap of eight years. On both occasions heavy market crash followed and PER came down to 12

For tomorrow, one can consider going long with a stop loss of 5420. On higher side it will find resistance at 5475 - 5515 and 5545.

Short position may be taken only below 5420 with stop loss of 5450. At lower levels, it will find support at 5350.

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Today (22-7-10)Nifty opened at 5381 with a loss of 18 points, moved in the range 5372 - 5401 up to 14.00, surged there after to 5447 (+ 48 points) and closed at 5442 with a gain of 43 points. Nifty futures range was 5375 - 5459, a difference of 84 points.
Thus, today Nifty broke the pause and moved upward. As today's PE Ratio is at 22.75 there is little scope for movement above 5500

NIFTY UPPER END MAY BE 5498 LOWER END MAY BE 5404

Current Spot: 5441.95
Pivot: 5420
3DEMA: 5415
7DEMA: 5393
20DEMA: 5338
50DEMA: 5262
RSI (7 days): 71.97
Parabolic SAR: 5321
Supports: 5394 - 5345
Resistance: 5469 - 5495

Nifty today opened weak but closed firm above all Technical Averages confirms bullishness. RSI is in uptrend but in overbought level, Stochastic has also given a positive crossover and trending upwards, and the volume seems to be good today.
Nifty today bounced off the trend line support at 5372, to close firm. Break of this trend line support at 5385 will take Nifty to 5350 and below, the resistance comes at next trend line at 5485, close above will add to the momentum to take nifty higher to 5500 and above.

Target Nifty
Buy Nifty above 5458 - 5481 - 5510 - 5565 SL - 5427
Sell Nifty below 5421 - 5402 - 5348 - 5318 SL - 5432

INDIA VIX Currently heading towards all time low.. Trading below 20%..As per VIX rule risky buy at higher level..Any time correction due in next week..

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty today was positive throughout and closed above all Technical Averages

but just Below

Day HEMA

which confirms selling at higher levels.

RSI is showing an uptick moving towards overbought level,

Stochastic has also given a negative crossover and trending downwards,

and the volumes good today.

Nifty is still trading above the trend line support at 5355,

break of this trend line will take Nifty to 5320 and below,

the resistance comes at Day HEMA at 5410,

close above will add to the momentum to take nifty higher to 5450 and above.

Nifty Future made a high near 5412 twice,

but could not cross the hurdle of 5420.

All said, weakness in last one hour yesterday, was forgotten and

once again it is keeping my hopes alive that Nifty Future will cross the hurdle of 5420 and 5450 soon.

Steel sector closed firm and could take the lead tomorrow and will be supported by

Reliance if it is able to move above 1071 and 1085.

TRADE THE RANGE TILL THEN

.

Current Spot: 5399.35

Pivot: 5396

3DEMA: 5388

7DEMA: 5377

20DEMA: 5327

50DEMA: 5253

RSI (7 days): 64.37

Parabolic SAR: 5310

Supports: 5383 - 5367

Resistance: 5412 - 5425

STOCK SPECIFIC ACTIONS WITH CHOPPY

TRADING WE EXPECT FOR

NEXT TWO DAYS.

OUT PERFORMERS FOR 22/07/2010

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MID-CAP IT, MEDIA AND BROKING FIRMS.

UNDER PERFORMERS FOR 22/07/2010

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EXPORT, SHIPPING, FMCG, AND CAPITAL GOODS.

Target Nifty

Buy Nifty above 5410 - 5415 - 5430 - 5450 SL - 5395

Sell Nifty below 5388 - 5381 - 5366 - 5351 SL - 5400

MY POSSIBLE RANGE OF NIFTY EXPECTED

1) 5380 -> 5290/5200 -> 5500.

2) 5380 holds -> 5400 -> 5440 -> 5500.

...

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Some weakness seen in markets but 5350 did not break... this may happen in a day or so.

Below 5350, we have gap support at 5300 and then at 5200.

Time analysis: rally from 5200 took 7 days. Since the top at 5450, markets have been rangebound for 4-5 days. For evidence of trend reversal, we need to see faster retracement and break of 5200. We have less than a week's time for this to happen.

OUT PERFORMERS FOR 21/07/2010

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MID-CAP IT, MID-CAP BANKS, AND STEEL.

UNDER PERFORMERS FOR 21/07/2010

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EXPORT, SHIPPING, FMCG, AND CAPITAL GOODS.

LAST CLOSE@5368 (-18 POINTS)

LAST HIGH@5416 LOW@5355

20DMA@5321

50DMA@5178

200DMA@5101

EXPECTED RANGE FOR 21/07/2010.

5288-5400

For tomorrow, I would suggest buying only above 5388 with a stop loss of 5340. on higher side, it will find resistance at 5420 and 5450.

One can consider going short if Nifty future trades below 5345 with stop loss of 5375. At lower levels, it will find support at 5300 - 5270.

From last seven trading sessions nifty has taken support around 5360-5362 levels numerous times so break sown from this level could take nifty to 5280 levels.

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

We can not get more narrower than this,

nifty is simply stuck in a range waiting for a push,

but uncertainly persists as there evolving a scenario

favoring equally bull and bear,

5453 proved to be a 5th completed zone

and 5453-5363

is a 5 wave down move on the shorter time frame.

So upside breakout to negate the 5 wave down move

will occur above 5435 zone.

Intraday support lies at 5370/65,

below which it can certainly reach

5330-5310 zone deciding further move.

5260/70 is key to trend reversal.

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

US markets have closed very weak

and

our markets to open gap down

However

we would like to advise not to panic even if 5365 is broken,

as we have support around 5320 - 5340,

In case this is breached,

5303 will act as a huge buying support

In view of these multiple supports, we can expect a sharp bounce

since it is back which could act as a pleasant surprise.

Please do not go short in case Nifty Future opens with a down side gap.

On monday in case of a gap down open

one can consider going long near all supports or @ 5313 levels with stop loss of 5290.

On the way up 5365 and 5405 will act as resistance levels.

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WEEKLY NIFTY VIEW

TECHNICAL VIEW

NIFTY FORMED HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN NECKLINE COMES

NEAR 5370

HEIGHT OF 90 POINTS

BREAKING BELOW 5365 WILL LEAD TO 5305-5285

BREAKING ABOVE 5375 WILL LEAD TO 5455-5475

AND TWO CLOSING BELOW 5204 CONFIRM REVERSAL OF

TREND WITH MINIMUM TARGET OF 5055. WE EXPECT

Nifty is getting a strong support close to the levels of 5355 to 5370

for next week upper targets are 5470

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sorry

sorry due to technical error we could not update today inconvenience reggreted

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sorry

sorry due to technical error we could not update today inconvenience reggreted

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

However, markets have made a new high today and since a lower top remains elusive,

I am tempted to discard the rounding top scenario... this is going on too long now.

Ironically, discarding the rounding top will be good news for bears.

Had the rounding top persisted, symmetry would have required markets to break 4500

after 6 months at the least.

Now the only option left is a fast break of 4500.

I am keeping the bullish scenario on hold,

fully aware that markets can catch me by surprise but yet reasonably confident

that I will be on the right side.

simplest approach, though difficult to believe, is the right approach.

Negative divergence, the "Evening Star" formation for the second time alerting a reversal

And finally the sharp fall below the "Day High Ema"

Now we need to see follow up price action as well as the depth of this correction.

NIFTY GIVE UP ALL THE MORNING GAINS AND CLOSED FLAT.

HIKE IN INFLATION, HDFC POOR NUMBER AND

DOWNGRADE IN METAL, BANKING, AND IT SECTORS ALL

STRIKES THE MARKET.

BULLS CAN BREATH UPTO NIFTY HOLD 5288. BUT TWO CLOSINGS BELOW 5210

WILL CONFIRM THE REVERSAL MINIMUM TARGET OF 5066.

OUT PERFORMERS FOR 15/07/2010

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REALITY AND PHARMA AND MIDCAP ITS.

UNDER PERFORMERS FOR 15/07/2010

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BANKING AND FINANCE AND LARGE CAPS

LAST CLOSE@5386 (-14 POINTS)

LAST HIGH@5450 LOW@5371

5DMA@5364

20DMA@5305

EXPECTED RANGE 5288-5422

The index is at new 52 week highs but the breadth hasn't yet picked up

yesterday the advance decline figure was at 789 to 574

we must also appreciate that Nifty not break yesterday's low and hence is still in the process of

making higher bottom and higher top and also above the neck line

We must wait for tomorrow to decide if the market has made a false breakout and would like to

give up the gains - my feeling is it will bounce back fro the midpoint i.e. 5340.

For tomorrow, as a matter of abundant caution, one should buy Nifty Future once it is above

5405 with stop loss of 5365. On higher side it will find resistance at 5420 - 5440 and 5475

Short position may taken up below 5365 with stop loss of 5405. On lower levels, it will find

support at 5333 and 5320.

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

NIFTY OUTLOOK

LAST HOUR UPMOVE IN EUROPE AND DOW FUTURE LIFT NIFTY TO 5400

SLOW DOWN IN IIP,EARNINGS & GROWTH ARE SEEN.

HIKE IN INFLATION & INTEREST RATES ARE ALSO IN CARDS.

ADVANCE DECLINE RATIO THOUGH POSITIVE NOT CONVINCING

THESE R NEWS RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY

BULLS HAVE TO BE CAUTION & BEARS HAVE TO BE PATIENT.

LAST HIGH@5406 LOW@5357

EXPECTED RANGE 5333-5444

It should be noted that though 5400 may be crossed sustainability is important

This looks unlikely given the poor breadth.

Tomorrow, long position should be taken with stop loss of 5370

On higher side, it will find resistance at 5440 - 5470.

It will be prudent not to remain short, once Niifty Future remains above 5420. (spot)

Short position should be taken only below 5365,with stop loss of 5400.

On down side, it will find support at 5325

Nifty may move to top of 5464 if it crosses 5420

Nifty PE Ratio is at 22.63 and it can go up 23 ie. 5489.

Above that, As experts say BUBBLE.

BE CAUTIONS

On redrawing the trendlines, the upper trendline offers resistance at 5489 which coincides with

the 161.8% fibo level of latest fall till 5210 from 5367, which is at 5463.

Weekly resistance is at 5495 ,

range break target is 5525,

as well as inverted head and shoulders target is 5513

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

NIFTY had a brush of resistance at 5400 today and has closed in the vicinity of highs. Daily chart is trending bullish but is retracing bearish divergence on MACD Histogram and MACD lines.

Bull power is negligible while market has moved past the current rally closing high of 5354.

There is a likely turnaround in the index moves on the next session.

Hourly chart which had a pretty strong opening into a bullish trend went flat towards closing.

MACD lines are yet to retrace any weakness

MACD Histogram holding above zero indicates that bullishness will continue but would be brief.

At the closing today, we have 63% trendiness on the NIFTY Index.

Value zone has locked much of our open risk on the open long trade.

There is a possibility that Nifty may move to negative territory. Tomorrow's level is at 5370 and SL for longs

NIFTY MAGIC POINTS ARE 5404 and 5353

IF 5353 BREACHED WITH VOL WE MAY SEE 5269-5210

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

On Friday, Nifty Future opened firm and made a high of 5367 and pulled back to close the week at 5354.

The weekly close should be considered strong and possibility of continuation of up move in the next week remains open.

Would like to inform the formation of an inverse Head & Shoulder with neck line at 5372. Incidentally, this neck line acted as a resistance for Friday's trading.

In the coming week, we need to move above this level and remain to close abv so to achieve pattern target of 5770 in the coming days/weeks.

While we will be in the midst of result announcements during this period, achieving this target will largely depend on the results announced by the leaders. In anticipation, Infosys did make a new 52 week high, but reluctance on the part of Reliance to participate in this buoyancy remains a concern.

On the otherside

The breadth since June has been poor. That is not such a good sign for a market trying to breakout into new 52 week highs.

One more point to note is that 60% of NSE stocks are below ADXR reading of 25.

Whether the markets will take out the previous high is the question on everybody's mind. But I don't think the question is that important - breaking out is no big deal, the question is of sustainability. Will the markets stay above 5400?

The current conditions don't support this scenario.

there is a contraction in the number of stocks making fresh 52 week highs. We are way below the

January figure If we were really breaking out then we must see an expansion in this number and not a contraction

However the negative divergences are intact. Volumes too were very low. Breadth improved.

On the downside below 5300 will open for 5225 and 5165 even 5050

One more scenario the range of 5210-5372 still needs to be broken .

Above 5378 We May See 5400,5423,5445… Below 5290,We May See 5247,5225,5200….

LAST CLOSE@5352 (+55 POINTS)

LAST HIGH@5359 LOW@5330

WEEKLY HIGH@5359 LOW@5225

5DMA@5283

20DMA@5279

50DMA@5143

200DMA@5086

5DAY RSI 68 AND 14DAY RSI 60

INDICATES NO SIGNALS.

WEEKLY KEY RESISTANCE@5422

WEEKLY KEY SUPPORT@5155

EXPECTED RANGE 5288-5400

OUT PERFORMERS FOR 12/07/2010

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MID-CAP BANKS AND FINANCE

UNDER PERFORMERS FOR 12/07/2010

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METAL STEEL AND OIL

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty witnessed the yet another correction from the higher levels,

nifty facing strong resistance at 5310 and if trades below 5222

we may see some more correction in nifty in coming days,

and on the upside any sustained move above 5320 may take it to

5350- 5380 levels.

THE 280POINTS UPMOVE IN DOW NOT DO ANY FIREWORKS

IN OUR MARKET.

TWO CLOSINGS BELOW 5155 WILL CONFIRM THAT WE AR

UNDER CLEAR DOWN TREND. AND A CLOSING ABOVE 5333

WILL GIVE POSITIVE SIGNAL FOR BULLS

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Tomorrow likely range

5310-5284-5266-5259-5221-5210.

Today Nifty closed at 5241

Supports comes at 5233-5231-5225-5218. Break of all on the other hand will create panic in the index for 5163-5135. So far today Nifty future has broken and closed below the hourly channel created in last few sessions. Sustaining below 5250 will be not at all good for bulls in the coming sessions.

Hence, I THINK that NIFTY higher level charts will go into the SELL mode in a couple of day time or even earlier.

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty future's Expected high & low for

7-7-10

are

5351 and 5270

Resistance at 5325

ABV will lead to

5333-5345-5353.

Support at

5288-5272-5263.

trades below 5273

we may see sharp dip towards 5232-5222.

Markets continue to remain rangebound between 5200 and 5400.

redefined the swing low at 5200...

expect rangebound trading to continue for some more time... maybe upto next week.

mkt still undecisive.

No clear trend has been established yet

charts still favourin downside

Huge OI in NIFTY suggests one side will see big move

5200 put has highestOI

break of tht can CREATE PANIC

still no biased posiiton advisable as long as we dont break confirm either side

break of either side can give quickly 250-300 points easily

5363 & 5210 respectively

MAGIC POINTS ARE 5343 and 5262

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NIFTY OUTLOOK

Markets form "lower high lower low"pattern for 15 days in a row, last bullish

bar as the deciding factor, level is 5140 spot.

"Bharat Bandh" today affected the market in the form of narrow range of 30

points and low turnover .

For tomorrow, long position should be taken only

above 5272 with stop loss of 5260. On higher

side it will find resistance at 5310 - 5333 -5353.

Fresh short position should be taken only below

5210 with stop loss of 5230. At lower level, it

support at 5150 and 5080.

Nifty future's expected high and low for 6-7-10 is

5272 and 5222

5 EMA has crossed 15 EMA from the top decisively

confirming the reversal.

AND ALSO IN 30MIN CHART 0N 5-7-10 NIFTY FUT HAD

FORMED CUP & HANDLE

TREND LINE IS 5240

BREAK OF THIS WOULD TGT 5240-70=70

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